2024’s Most Vulnerable Counties for Extreme Winter Weather

A variable-message sign reading “winter weather expected” flashes alongside a bus stop

Which counties face the biggest risks from winter weather events like ice storms, blizzards, and cold waves?

To find out, HVAC Gnome ranked 2024’s Most Vulnerable Counties for Extreme Winter Weather. Why HVAC Gnome? When extreme winter weather hits, you need a reliable furnace or heating system to keep warm.

We compared over 440 U.S. counties with Relatively High and Very High risk of extreme winter weather according to FEMA. We also considered the average historical winter temperature and expected annual financial loss from severe winter weather, among 7 total metrics.

Explore our ranking below. To learn how we ranked the counties, see our methodology.

Contents

Rankings

See how each county fared in our ranking:

Top 5 Close Up

Check out the slideshow below for highlights on each of our 5 most vulnerable counties.

Map of Kansas with a snowflake icon over Johnson County indicating it as one of the most vulnerable counties for extreme winter weather
No. 1: Johnson County, Kansas | Overall Score: 72.62

Winter Weather Risk Score: 100 | Rank: 1
Ice Storm Risk Score: 99.63 | Rank: 8
Cold Wave Risk Score: 94.34 | Rank: 89
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Winter Weather Events: $10.4 million | Rank: 1
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Ice Storms: $6.2 Million | Rank: 7
Map of Illinois with a snowflake icon over Cook County indicating it as one of the most vulnerable counties for extreme winter weather
No. 2: Cook County, Illinois | Overall Score: 62.89

Winter Weather Risk Score: 99.65 | Rank: 12
Ice Storm Risk Score: 90.94 | Rank: 98
Cold Wave Risk Score: 100 | Rank: 1
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Winter Weather Events: $2.5 Million | Rank: 15
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Cold Waves: $68 Million | Rank: 1
Map of Missouri with a snowflake icon over St. Louis County indicating it as one of the most vulnerable counties for extreme winter weather
No. 3: St. Louis County, Missouri | Overall Score: 61.6

Winter Weather Risk Score: 99.97 | Rank: 8
Ice Storm Risk Score: 94.94 | Rank: 5
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Winter Weather Events: $5.1 Million | Rank: 5
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Ice Storms: $998,299.81 | Rank: 5
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Cold Waves: $159,467.36 | Rank: 117
Map of Oklahoma with a snowflake icon over Tulsa County indicating it as one of the most vulnerable counties for extreme winter weather
No. 4: Tulsa County, Oklahoma | Overall Score: 61.36

Winter Weather Risk Score: 99.9 | Rank: 4
Ice Storm Risk Score: 99.97 | Rank: 2
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Winter Weather Events: $3,889,746.60 | Rank: 4
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Ice Storms: $8.9 Million | Rank: 4
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Cold Waves: $759,664.85 | Rank: 120
Map of New York with a snowflake icon over Nassau County indicating it as one of the most vulnerable counties for extreme winter weather
No. 5: Nassau County, New York | Overall Score: 58.99

Average Historical Winter Temperature: 36.13 | Rank: 259
Winter Weather Risk Score: 98.31| Rank: 54
Ice Storm Risk Score: 100 | Rank: 1
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Winter Weather Events: $1.4 Million | Rank: 43
Expected Annual Financial Loss from Ice Storms: $25.7 Million | Rank: 1

The Upshot

Midwestern counties such as Johnson County, Kansas (No. 1), Cook County, Illinois (No. 2), and St. Louis County, Missouri (No. 3), finish at the top with high vulnerability to severe winter weather, ice storms, and cold waves. Johnson County deals with the highest expected financial loss from winter weather events — over $10 million. Cook County faces an estimated annual loss of over $68 million due to cold waves.

26 North Dakota counties score in the top 100 most vulnerable, with Ward County (No. 7) landing in the top 10. North Dakota shivers through some of the coldest wintersCavalier County (No. 188), has the lowest average historical winter temperature of 7.84 degrees

Southern states like Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina land in the less vulnerable half of our ranking thanks to lower chances of extreme winter weather and less costly estimated financial losses.

Ask The Experts

An unexpected snowstorm or cold wave can leave folks without heat and electricity — or even stranded in their car — creating potentially life-threatening conditions.

We turned to a panel of experts for tips on preparing for severe winter weather. Read through their advice below.

  1. What are three necessities to have on hand or stocked in your home in case extreme winter weather strikes?
  2. What are three items to keep in your car in case of a winter emergency?
  3. How does extreme winter weather impact home insurance rates, if at all?
  4. What is the best way to stay up to date on extreme weather forecasts?
Natalie Simpson
Professor of Operations Management & Strategy and Associate Dean for Graduate Programs
Eric M. Lui
Meredith Professor
Barry J. Burton, D.O.
Assistant Professor
Natalie Simpson
Professor of Operations Management & Strategy and Associate Dean for Graduate Programs
University at Buffalo School of Management

What are three necessities to have on hand or stocked in your home in case extreme winter weather strikes?

1. Bottled water, at least a few gallons worth.

2. Several days worth of food. If you have canned food you might eat during a storm, check that you also have a manual can-opener.

3. Candles. Be careful with lit candles during a blackout, but they are a great and easy-to-store emergency solution.

What are three items to keep in your car in case of a winter emergency?

1. Gasoline. During winter months, don’t let your gas tank run low if you can afford it. Stop and top off your tank throughout the winter, even though that might not be convenient. If you have an electric vehicle, take the same approach to power management.

2. Blanket, spare coat, gloves, hat and boots. You shouldn’t leave the house during the winter not dressed for the conditions, but the temptation is always there because we never expect to get stuck out in the weather. As a backup, carry everything you need to stay warm in your car during the winter.

3. Small shovel. If you get stuck in a snowstorm, you’ll need to keep falling snow from covering the tailpipe of your car. You’ll be glad you had a little folding camp shovel with you.

How does extreme winter weather impact home insurance rates, if at all?

Generally, extreme winter weather has the same impact as other threats to your house.

  • First, in areas where it’s caused substantial and repeated damage in the past, this is factored into setting premiums across that region in the future — just like hurricanes and earthquakes.
  • Second, if your house is damaged by winter weather and you place a claim, your premium may increase in the future.

What is the best way to stay up to date on extreme weather forecasts?

One of the best ways to stay up to date on extreme weather forecasts is to subscribe to “push notification” for extreme weather warnings, whether by text or a weather app. Who’s actually sending you these warnings can vary, but often your local emergency management office offers this service, among others.

Regardless of the source or the app, another way to stay up to date is to not depend on just one device, such as your phone, for all your news. Extreme weather often knocks out power and phone service, so have a battery-powered radio. This could be a specialized emergency radio pre-tuned to the National Weather Service and/or a functioning radio in your car on which you can tune in to local stations.

Eric M. Lui
Meredith Professor
Syracuse University, Civil and Environmental Engineering

What are three necessities to have on hand or stocked in your home in case extreme winter weather strikes?

  1. Ready-to-eat food and potable water.
  2. Flashlight.
  3. Alternative energy source.

What are three items to keep in your car in case of a winter emergency?

  1. Warm clothes and/or blankets.
  2. Cell phone or other forms of communication equipment.
  3. Portable power station.

How does extreme winter weather impact home insurance rates, if at all?

Insurance rates are likely to rise if more claims are made by homeowners for damage to their properties due to extreme weather conditions.

What is the best way to stay up to date on extreme weather forecasts?

The usual news and media outlets.

Barry J. Burton, D.O.
Assistant Professor
Emergency and Disaster Management, Thomas Jefferson University

Additional editing contributed by David Nitsch, MPH, Assistant Professor and Program Director for the MS in Emergency and Disaster Management program at Thomas Jefferson University

What are three necessities to have on hand or stocked in your home in case extreme winter weather strikes?

As a matter of simple survival, humans and domestic animals need to keep a warm body temperature, and a prolonged decrease in body temperature is the primary hazard to protect against during a winter storm. The best choice to stay protected when hostile winter weather conditions are predicted is to remain in a warm, protected home. When preparing for winter weather and protecting against the loss of body temperature, three environmental factors must be considered:

1. The absolute temperature.

2. Wind chill.

3. Precipitation.

When exposed to these factors, they will rapidly rob our bodies of heat and prolonged exposure will lead to serious injury.

The best protection from exposure to winter weather is to stay inside a well-serviced home. A well-maintained and adequately vented heating unit will add heat to the inside of a home and is the best protection from winter weather. During especially harsh winters, or if drafts are noticed around doors and windows, covering these spaces with plastic or blankets will create a “dead space” of air that will reduce heat loss. Rolls of towels or “draft dodgers” can also be placed at the bottom of doors to limit wind driving in the cold.

In the event of a power failure or disruption of the home heating system, we can make the living area smaller by clustering family members and domestic pets in a small room and again, placing blankets over the passageways, or even creating a tent to conserve heat. Blankets or heavy sheets are thus a useful preparation.

It is vitally important that we remember that people and our pets need good air to survive. During winter weather events we must be cautioned against using open flame sources (candles, gas ovens, even kerosene heaters). There is an increased risk of fire when using these open flame forms of heat as well as the deadly accumulation of carbon monoxide.

The cold can cause us to lose water from our cells more rapidly and we need to combat this by preparing for other basic needs, most importantly water and food. People and our pets require a gallon of water person and/or pet per day for drinking and sanitation. Calories are also vitally important and comforting. In the case of a storm that disrupts power, you really want simple foods that supply energy without the need for cooking.

What are three items to keep in your car in case of a winter emergency?

If you must travel in a vehicle, the same principles of conserving body heat apply.

1. Layers of clothing help to prevent heat loss by trapping air that your body then warms.

  • A loose-fitting hat that completely covers your head and ears,
  • A scarf over the face,
  • And gloves to protect our vulnerable areas.

The choice of clothing material is very important. Natural fibers such as wool and alpaca fiber are found to retain heat even when wet (snow, rain, body sweat) and are often recommended next to the skin. Absorbent natural fibers such as cotton should be avoided. Absorbent materials trap moisture and will cause your body to lose heat rapidly.

Additional blankets or a sleeping bag in the car is helpful. Having a few “chemical heat packs” in all situations can provide some heat for short periods of time.

Many PSAs (public service announcements) remind us to stay with our vehicle, as it is easier to locate in the dark or whiteout conditions than to wander and perhaps fall (into invisibility) in an effort to hike out to safety. Those with a fossil fuel vehicle need to be absolutely certain the exhaust (tail) pipe is clear before turning the engine on for heat. Recommendations from the above sources suggest [turning on the heat] only ten minutes every hour when stranded.

2. Batteries don’t hold energy very well in the cold. A good recommendation is to have a backup cell phone battery or two if you must travel.

3. Essential workers often don’t have the option to shelter in their home. A good car kit would include:

  • Blankets
  • Chemical hot packs
  • Additional change of clothes (for layering or to change out if wet)
  • Extra cell phone battery (to call for assistance)
  • Some high-calorie food bars
  • Water in a metal bottle (for personal hydration, changed for each trip)
  • A shovel
  • Traction aids (the floor mat of the car can work in a pinch)
  • Sand mix
  • Emergency lighting and/or signaling devices

I also use traction aids on my shoes, should I go out of the car to get out of ruts using the shovel and floor mats.

What is the best way to stay up to date on extreme weather forecasts?

How do we know when we need to hunker down? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Radio (especially with the Specific Area Message Encoding, S.A.M.E.) provides a method to receive Emergency Alerts from the Emergency Alert System, in addition to individual cellphones.

Many local areas offer a free registration to their local alerts. I personally subscribe to ReadyPA (Text alerts), and the Weather Channel and Weather Radar as iPhone applications.

Behind the Ranking

First, we determined the factors (metrics) that are most relevant to rank the Most Vulnerable Counties for Extreme Winter Weather. We then assigned a weight to each factor based on its importance and grouped those factors into 3 categories: Extreme Weather Risk, Winter Climate, and Financial Risk. The categories, factors, and their weights are listed in the table below.

For 447 U.S. counties with Relatively High and Very High risk of extreme winter weather, as determined by FEMA, we then gathered data on each factor from the sources listed below the table. 

Finally, we calculated scores (out of 100 points) for each county to determine its rank in each factor, each category, and overall. A county’s Overall Score is the average of its scores across all factors and categories. The highest Overall Score ranked “Most Vulnerable” (No. 1) and the lowest “Least Vulnerable” (No. 447). Note: The “Least Vulnerable” among individual factors may not be No. 447 due to ties.

Sources: Federal Emergency Management Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Stay Warm and Prepared for the Storm

Snowstorms and cold waves test the strength of power grids across the U.S. Winter weather accounted for approximately 22% of power outages between 2000 and 2021.

This season’s cold snaps caused industrial facilities across Texas to release 1 million pounds of excess emissions. In February 2021, the Great Texas Freeze took down the state’s power grid leaving nearly 10 million without heat or water for days across the state. Pipes burst. More than 200 Texans were killed during the record freeze. 

Stay warm and prepared ahead of winter storms with help from our guides below.

Energy bill burning up your wallet? See how your heating costs compare to other cities and learn how to lower your energy bills this winter.

What is HVAC Gnome? For heating, ventilation, and air conditioning inspections, installations, and repairs, HVAC Gnome connects you to the best HVAC professionals in your area.

HVAC Gnome is part of the Home Gnome family of home services sites.

Media Resources

Main Photo Credit: Erica Fischer / Flickr / CC BY 2.0

Sav Maive

Sav Maive is a writer and director based in San Antonio. Sav is a graduate from the University of Virginia and is a loving cat and plant mom.